The Possible Effects on Ireland of a British Exit from the EU
Two way trade between Ireland and the Uk is worth over EUR €1 billion per week.
Ireland is the UK’s fifth largest export market and imports more from the UK than any other country. The UK accounts for 30% of imports into Ireland. In 2014, exports of goods and services from the UK to Ireland totalled £27.86 billion
The UK is Ireland’s largest export market, with goods and services exports to the UK totalling €30bn in 2014 – which was 17% of total Irish exports.
The UK ranked as Ireland’s number one market for services exports and second for goods exports at €16.5bn and €13.4bn respectively in 2014.
Ireland is the UK’s largest export market in food and drink, and second largest market in clothing, fashion and footwear.
A British exit from the EU could see the sterling-euro exchange rate weaken by 10-15%. A stronger Euro would make Irish firms selling into the UK market less competitive. (It would also mean cheaper imports for Irish consumers which could harm Irish retailers.)
The ESRI reported that Brexit is likely to reduce bilateral trade flows between Ireland and the UK. The impact could be 20 per cent or more.
A UK exit from the EU opens up the possibility of restrictions on the free movement of people between Ireland and the UK for the purposes of work.
If the UK was no longer in the EU we might see the imposition of passport controls at the border with Northern Ireland .
Migration : Over 400,000 people who were born in the Republic of Ireland were resident in the UK at the last census. Similarly almost 230,000 British born people were living in Ireland in 2011. If Brexit happens – many of these people could find themselves resident in a country where their right to residency has come into question.
Budget – Ireland would actually find itself with an additional EU budget payment to make. Other EU other member states would need to cover the loss of UK net contributions. In 2030, Ireland’s additional payment could total roughly €177m per year.